There are enduring agricultural machinery, such as tractors, which are the power source of thousands of agricultural machinery, but there will be hot changes in the agricultural machinery market every year. For users, these agricultural machinery may be a tool for getting rich. For agricultural machinery manufacturers and dealers, these agricultural machinery may make enterprises earn a lot of money, so it is important to pay attention to the hot spots of the industry. Zhang Ruimin said, "there are no successful enterprises, Keep the enterprises of the times", what is said is also the importance of opportunities, so what are the agricultural machinery worth looking forward to in 2024?

 

 

The large-scale electrification of the agricultural machinery industry is inseparable from tractors. At the same time, the development of electric agricultural machinery, many companies first think of electric tractors, which can be seen from the 2023 Wuhan National Conference.

Wuhan National Conference electric tractors can be divided into hybrid and pure electric two technical routes. Hybrid type is mainly motor CVT gearbox, such as Dongfanghong, Wade, Yingxuan, Liugong, Jiate and other enterprises, such as Dongfanghong HB2204, Wade DK2804, Yingxuan Heavy Industry YX3004-8HEV, Liugong should be LT3504, it is worth paying attention to the 1E-Power series hybrid assembly introduced by Yuchai; Pure motor type is less than hybrid, such as Luoyang Lutong 80 horsepower pure electric tractor, using the battery core of Ningde era, zhongke Power 1404-ET/604-ET, Zhonglian Heavy Branch CA504ET.

The exhibition is a weather vane. In addition, the electrification of the agricultural machinery industry will also be affected by the automobile and construction machinery industries. At present, construction machinery is being fully electrified. The electrification of agricultural machinery obviously lags behind automobiles and construction machinery, and the electric industry chain of the automobile and construction machinery industries It can be used by agricultural machinery, which will accelerate the electrification process of agricultural machinery.

It is expected that electric agricultural machinery, especially electric tractors, will become a hot spot in the industry in 2024. On the one hand, more enterprises will launch electric tractors into the experimental stage. On the other hand, some electric tractors will enter the sales of small quantities. It is optimistically predicted that the new subsidy policy will support the pilot of electric tractors.

02

Grain corn combine harvester

 

 

There are two ways of segmental harvest and grain direct harvest in China. Due to the restriction of various conditions, most corn in China cannot realize mechanized direct harvest for a long time. Therefore, mechanical tasseling (or manual) mechanical threshing (or manual) natural drying has become the mainstream. However, segmental harvest has many intermediate links, high labor cost, many uncontrollable factors, and high probability of loss and mildew, grain harvesting can be completed at one time, such as scion, straw crushing, peeling, threshing and so on. For agricultural production with labor shortage, direct grain harvesting is of great significance.

The grain combine harvester has the following threshing methods, corresponding to different threshing mechanisms: cut-flow draughter, cut-flow transverse axial flow, small longitudinal axial flow, medium longitudinal axial flow, large longitudinal axial flow, double longitudinal axial flow, cut-flow longitudinal axial flow, cut-flow double longitudinal axial flow, etc.

There are so many threshing methods, which can be summarized as transverse axial flow and longitudinal axial flow. The biggest difference between longitudinal axial flow and transverse axial flow is that transverse axial flow is more suitable for wheat that is easy to thresh, and it is not effective for other crops that have large water content or are not easy to thresh. The biggest advantages of longitudinal axial flow are long threshing rollers, large threshing area, long process time, clean threshing and less grain loss.

Grain corn combine harvesters are almost all vertical axial flow models. On the one hand, the planting area of grain corn in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and Huang-Huai-Hai region is increasing in recent years, and growers are also rapidly accepting direct grain harvesting. On the other hand, grain harvesters can harvest a variety of crops, with short investment return time and high cost performance. Of course, the subjective initiative of enterprises cannot be ignored, as well as the information revealed at the recent business annual meeting of corn machine enterprises, it can be inferred that 2024 corn machine is the model that many enterprises will focus on promoting.

 

03

60L plant protection unmanned aircraft

Plant protection drones can be regarded as a success on a global scale. They have been used on a large scale in China after 2018, but it only took three years to knock the ground plant protection machinery to the altar. In recent years, plant protection drones The aircraft is also rapidly replacing rice transplanters, rice direct sowing machines, and all agricultural machinery suitable for spreading.

The biggest advantage of electric plant protection unmanned aerial vehicle is high efficiency, and the biggest disadvantage is relay capacity and load capacity. However, it is obvious that the advantage is more valuable than the disadvantage, because at present, the plant protection operation of 60L unmanned aerial vehicle can reach more than 2000 mu a day, which is difficult to achieve. Even imported large-scale plant protection machinery is difficult to achieve large-scale operation area due to the operating environment and restrictions on the ground.

I believe many people have seen the recent new product launches of Dajiang and Jfei,

On the morning of November 18, the Jumu robot released a new J100 agricultural unmanned aerial vehicle with 45L medicine box as standard, 60L super medicine box as optional, 70L sowing box as carrying and 60kg lifting. On November 23, DJI Dajiang Agriculture officially released T60 and T25P two agricultural unmanned aircraft. Jifei Technology released a new generation of P150 and P60 agricultural unmanned aircraft on December 11. Earlier on September 23, tuo Tapping (Nanjing) Robot has introduced two agricultural unmanned aircraft, Fengpeng 600 and Fengpeng 500. Fengpeng 600 has a maximum load of 60kg, a spraying medicine box of 50L and a spreading material box of 76L. The operation efficiency is greatly improved. Fengpeng 500 has a maximum load of 40kg, a spraying medicine box of 40L and a spreading material box of 55L.

Heavy loads have become a significant selling point for plant protection agricultural drones. The operating efficiency of agricultural UAV products has been significantly improved: around 2017, the carrying capacity of agricultural UAV was only about 7L, and now the carrying capacity has reached 70L. In the past, only 200 to 300 mu could be operated in a day, but now it can reach 2000 mu in a day.

Obviously, the main model pushed by the plant protection unmanned aircraft factory in 2024 is 60L unmanned aircraft. High efficiency and elimination of low efficiency are the first principles of competition in the unmanned aircraft industry. Therefore, there is no doubt about the hot sale of 60L unmanned aircraft in 2024.

 

04

large square baler

 

 

In 2023, the baler industry collectively fell. Whether it is straw baling, forage baling machine or feed straw baling machine, the sales volume has dropped sharply. From the perspective of development cycle, the peak period of domestic balers has ended.

After the scale of growth is over, opportunities in the industry must be sought in the structure, and high-end products with high-end demand will become the next hot spot to chase.

Obviously, domestic strapping machine enterprises collectively value Dafang fighting machines. At present, about 10 enterprises have introduced Dafang strapping machines, which indicates the coming of the era of domestic Dafang strapping machines, such as Huaxi Yutian 9YF-2.27(1290XD) high-density six-lane rope strapping machines, Dongfanghong 9YFA-2.2XD generous strapping machines, Huade animal husbandry machines 001 six-Dafang strapping machines (9Yoda FR1290XD), jilin Xin Tianlang 9YFA-2.3 six-way rope generous bundle.

In addition, according to anecdotal rumors, there are still five or six enterprises that are intensively developing large square balers. For a long time, large square balers have been in an embarrassing situation in China. The main reason is that the price of imported products is too high. From the agricultural machinery purchase subsidy system, it is found that the sales price of 9YFQ-2.2(BB1290) in New Holland in Xinjiang is 1.14 million -1.2 million yuan, and the market price of MF 2270XD is 1.7 million -2 million yuan, even the second-hand Fante 1290NXD is close to 2 million yuan. Compared with single-digit small square bundles and small round bundles, as well as hundreds of thousands of large round bundles, imported generous bundles are too expensive for ordinary users to afford. The high price makes the user group of generous bundles appear very narrow.

After localization, the market terminal price will definitely drop to less than 1 million. Three years later, the market bottom price will be around 500000, and the purchase threshold will be lower. We have reason to believe that 2024 is the first year of domestic large-scale bundling machines.

 

05

corn soybean compound agricultural machinery

 

 

Soybean and corn are important crops in China, which have many characteristics of bulk grain, oil, feed and so on. The domestic demand for soybean is 0.11 billion tons and corn is 0.33 billion tons all year round. To meet the domestic consumption demand by net production mode, it needs nearly 1.5 billion mu of arable land. However, China has only 1.8 billion mu of arable land, and corn has already occupied 0.6 billion mu. It is impossible to take another 0.8 billion -0.9 billion mu to grow soybeans. Therefore, it is difficult to increase the self-sufficiency rate of soybeans and corn by greatly increasing the working area. Soybeans and corn are dry crops in the same season, and the contradiction between the two has become a "stuck neck" problem that plagues my country's grain and oil safety.

Can you have both "fish and bear's paw"? There is a folk proverb in China: "Corn sets of soybeans, ten kinds of nine do not leak". It means that interplanting soybeans in corn fields will not fail for at least nine of the ten years, and the increase in production and income is relatively obvious. Especially for areas with less rain, interplanting soybeans in corn fields can achieve complementary advantages and take advantage of the height gap between the two crops to realize various advantageous effects such as using land space, ventilation and light transmission, water preservation and shading.

The country began to promote corn and soybean compound sowing in 2022. The biggest embarrassment of that year was inorganic availability, whether it was a planter or a harvester. However, after two years of preparation, even if the compound sowing area increased significantly in 2024, the supply of related agricultural machinery would not be a big problem.

In 2024, on the one hand, the corn and soybean multifunctional planter will gradually mature, on the other hand, the supply and demand will increase, which is a new increase for many planter enterprises. On the other hand, it is gratifying that the corn and soybean dual-purpose harvester has been successfully listed. At the Wuhan National Conference, Jiangxi Shuangxingda Company displayed a real corn and soybean dual-purpose harvester, one machine with an ear picking roller cutting table and a reel cutting table, and two sets of completely different threshing peeling mechanisms. This is a product with a big brain hole. It is quite difficult to design and manufacture. I believe that with this blueprint, other harvesters will soon follow up and launch similar models.

 

06

hilly mountain agricultural machinery

 

 

The greatest opportunity for agricultural machinery in hilly areas lies in policy support. Obviously, with the rapid progress of agricultural mechanization in plain areas from the intermediate stage to the advanced stage, the backward students in hilly areas have attracted more attention from relevant departments. In recent years, the policy support for agricultural mechanization in hilly areas has become stronger and stronger.

Encouraged by the policy, many companies have begun to seriously examine the opportunities for agricultural mechanization in hilly and mountainous areas. In the past two years, the domestic hilly and mountainous agricultural machinery has made great progress, and some revolutionary products have entered the market promotion period.

For example, Chongqing Weima, Chongqing Xinyuan, Hunan Wogong and other enterprises have introduced small crawler rotary tillers instead of micro-tillers, with a power of 15-30 horsepower. The working efficiency is more than ten times higher than that of micro-tillers with a few horsepower, but the passability is still excellent.

In addition, there is also an invisible champion specializing in the production of hilly and mountainous agricultural machinery. For example, Shanxi Renda and Jilin Shunkun focus on the research and development of mountain corn mechanism. Shunkun has introduced a revolutionary corn machine with 6-wheel and 8-wheel drive, wheel-shoe compound and wheel-shoe exchange. Guangxi Huilai Bao Machinery has introduced a series of product matrices of mountain cattle, mountain dragon, mountain deer and mountain turtle, even Zoomlian has introduced a number of special equipment designed for hilly and mountainous areas, such as three-drive tractors.

There is no doubt that in 2024, the state and agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy will still vigorously support the agricultural mechanization cause in hilly and mountainous areas, and the agricultural machinery enterprises really rooted in hilly and mountainous areas will eat the dividends of the policy.

07

4 row cotton picker
Xinjiang's cotton planting area is about 35 million -37 million mu, which is the main battlefield of cotton pickers. In 2023, the number of cotton pickers will reach 10000. If 70% of the area is suitable for mechanical cotton picking, the average working area of a cotton picker is 2600 mu. At the current cotton picking price of 120-150, a cotton picker can't earn 500000 yuan a year. According to the author's experience, cotton pickers, a high-value agricultural machinery, if you can't buy back the machine within 5 years, the investment will have no value.

The high profit margin will attract strong competitors to join in. Wod has played the role of catfish in Xinjiang cotton picker market. The bloody era of cotton picker is coming. The violent era of cotton picker and machine picker is coming to an end. The future cotton picker will definitely be more doomed to return on investment and cost performance. Even if imported models have absolute advantages in technology and quality, if the cost cannot be recovered for a long time, the investment is meaningless.

The development direction of cotton pickers will be multi-level. There will be 4 rows and 5 rows between 3 rows and 6 rows of balers. In 2023, Boshi Ran introduced 4 rows of self-propelled cotton pickers 4MZD-4A, which can reach 80% of 6 rows of machines from the operation effect of 2023 picking season. 4 rows of machines can combine the advantages of 3 rows and 6 rows, with smaller volume and stronger adaptability, of course, the price is also superior to that of line 6. In fact, many places in Xinjiang, especially in southern Xinjiang, need "not small" models between line 3 and line 6.

After many years of selling well, the domestic 6-row packing cotton picking machine may become the next hot product, which will form a strong substitute for 3-row and 6-row.

08

corn no-tillage planter

 

 

Agricultural machinery that can help growers save money and help operators make money is invincible, and corn no-tillage planters also have this feature.

No-tillage sowing refers to the completion of side deep fertilization, seed bed treatment, precision sowing, soil covering, heavy suppression and other operations without treatment of straw or rotary tillage before sowing, which saves time, effort and money and achieves higher quality and higher yield than traditional intensive cultivation.

Conservation tillage is a matter related to the future of Northeast China. After more than ten years of promotion, Heilongdi uses output and ecological improvement to prove the correctness and necessity of conservation tillage.

The most critical equipment in the planting mode of conservation tillage is the no-tillage planter. It can be said that leaving the no-tillage planter for conservation tillage is empty talk. In 2024, the state and local governments will still vigorously promote conservation tillage, and the area of conservation tillage will be increased in a planned way. The no-tillage planter will also be valued and supported by subsidy policies.

 

09

Power Drive Rake

 

The annual sales volume of domestic power-driven rake is still within 5000 units, or even 3000 units, but the power-driven rake has huge market potential in China, so it has attracted many enterprises to join it.

The end of the universe is the iron ridge, and the end of the rotary tiller is the power-driven rake.

In 2022, the domestic market sales volume of rotary tillers is 250000 units, which is not to be reported for compensation. Because the subsidy amount is too small, many machine buyers are too troublesome to buy directly. Rotary tillers are a kind of special demand agricultural machinery under the background of "part-time agriculture". It can be said that they are "tasted and stopped" in farming. On the surface, they save power and improve farming efficiency, but in fact they sacrifice output and income, therefore, the real large-scale high-value agriculture will not use rotary tiller.

Of course, there are other objective conditions that are destined to be replaced by other machines and tools, such as serious soil erosion and salinization. The reason why hydraulic pressure is used to plow deeply in Xinjiang and the horsepower of tractors is increasing is because the soil erosion is very serious. Rotary cultivators can no longer cope with rock-solid land, and the soil in Huang-Huai-Hai region is also increasingly hardened.

At present, the agricultural machinery used to deal with compaction and replace rotary tillers is power-driven rake, as well as double operation machinery such as raking and sowing machines derived from power-driven rake. It can be imagined that if half of 250000 rotary tillers are replaced by power-driven rake, what a great business opportunity it would be for enterprises in this industry, so hundreds of machinery enterprises have entered the power-driven rake industry.

Enterprises can create demand. In 2024, hundreds of agricultural machinery enterprises will strongly promote power-driven rake. In addition to the actual demand, it is believed that the sales volume of power-driven rake will increase by a large proportion in 2024.

 

10

Used agricultural machinery

 

The commercial value of second-hand agricultural machinery depends on several aspects: first, the amount of ownership is very large, and only when the amount of ownership is large will some of the machines enter the re-trading link; second, there is a high price difference between the price of the second mobile phone and the new machine, that is, the advantage of the second mobile phone is cheap; third, there are efficient circulation channels to reduce transaction costs; fifth, there is a gradient or gap in demand, such as the northeast of the machine in the use of four or five years after the sale to the Central Plains or best-selling models.

In the domestic market, there has been a huge price gap between second-hand agricultural machinery and new machinery for a long time, so that second-hand agricultural machinery has been tepid. The core problem behind it is the subsidy policy. Since the subsidy policy has about 30% of the new machinery, the price of new machinery is almost the same as that of second-hand machinery, so many users prefer to choose new machinery with higher safety factor.

However, from 2020 onwards, the subsidy amount and subsidy ratio of agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy for core products such as tractors are being reduced. For example, the subsidy ratio for tractors in 2023 has been reduced to less than 15%, and some high-subsidy power segments are diving continuously. For example, heavy tractors with 200 horsepower and above have been adjusted from the original 129000 to less than the current 40000 yuan.

The continuous reduction of the subsidy ratio and quota has made the price disadvantage of the new machine more and more obvious, and the price advantage of the second mobile phone has become more and more obvious. The result of the opposite price is that the second-hand agricultural machinery has more competitive advantages.

In 2024, the domestic second-hand agricultural machinery market is still optimistic. As second-hand agricultural machinery is not restricted by the manufacturer's brand regional authorization policy, second-hand agricultural machinery is more suitable for online and new media channels to sell. This will accelerate the circulation of second-hand agricultural machinery, increase the channel speed, and more old machines will enter the channels. The accelerated elimination of old machines can also drive the sales of new machines. It is the so-called "old ones will not go, new ones!"